Fusing Technology and Human Intelligence
GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCE SOLUTION INTERWEAVES ANALYSTS’ IDEAS WITH TECHNOLOGY TO PROVIDE UNIQUE INSIGHTS.
On government facilities in and around the Washington, D.C., metropolitan region, an organization works to predict where threats are located. Where might resources be most effectively allocated to counter or disrupt the threats?
The organization uses an innovative geospatial intelligence solution from a company called Spatial Data Analytics (SPADAC) that interweaves analysts’ intelligence with technology to provide unique insight to owners of the world’s most critical decisions, so that better and faster risk mitigation and resource allocation decisions can be made.
Life is full of patterns, most of which are invisible to the naked eye. People make choices based on factors of which they may not even be consciously aware. In order to predict the movements of the future, it is critical to analyze the movements of the past.
Intelligence analysts understand the power of analyzing the movements of the past, and are constantly searching for tools and methodologies that can help them efficiently parse through information to find knowledge. SPADAC’s Orion/SA is a sophisticated analysis and data fusion engine that is helping these analysts in different efforts around the world.
For example, if a metropolitan area were experiencing a wave of muggings at ATM machines, researchers and subject matter experts would pull together information on lighting, traffic patterns, on which side of the building the ATM was located, police patrol routes and nearby businesses, among other factors. Once the data was loaded into Orion/SA, the software would use human intelligence to pinpoint other ATMs in the area whose characteristics match those at which the previous muggings had taken place.
In a visual representation, the most similar areas appear in bright red. Less similar but still plausible areas appear in yellow. These hotspots are one way to narrow the areas where resources should be focused. In the ATM example, local law enforcement could increase patrols in the areas highlighted as most similar, increasing their chances of apprehending the robber.
For each problem, Orion/SA creates a GeoSignature, a set of criteria that describe a particular event type. GeoSignatures are used to better understand the problem, or to make forecasts into the future. Using a process known as signature transfer, the GeoSignature created to answer a question in one geographic area can be exported to another geographic area. If a second city were to suddenly find itself dealing with a large number of ATM assaults, the signature from the first city could easily be transferred, dramatically reducing the amount of time necessary for intelligence gathering.
This unique methodology has numerous applications within the military world, including predicting terrorist activity, searching for certain types of facilities, planning missions and applying resources. The challenges SPADAC technology can tackle are limited only by the analysts’ need and imagination. And the results are real, providing predictive analysis that is consistently accurate and on target.
TRACKING THE SNIPERS
In October 2002, the Washington metropolitan region was paralyzed by random sniper attacks. An unknown assailant was shooting and killing people in public places. Because no one knew where the sniper would strike next, police resources were scattered. Rather than preventing attacks, they were limited to rushing to the scene to search for clues—and because many of the attacks happened near large highways, the assailant was gone by the time law enforcement arrived. Public fear in the region was palpable as many people declined to go outdoors or dramatically modified their daily routines.
SPADAC created a model to analyze the situation after the fact. Approximately 108 variables, including transportation infrastructure, hydrology, landmarks and demographics, were loaded into Orion/SA. They were joined by event data from the previous attacks. The key question—Where are the criminals most likely to strike again?—was rephrased into a more pointed question— Where should law enforcement resources be focused?
After analyzing nine events, Orion/SA projected the next five events to occur in less than 7 percent of the Washington metropolitan region, with 90 percent confidence. The unique methodology is a powerful predictive tool that, if available to law enforcement officials or other security forces, enables the most effective allocation of scarce security resources to mitigate the threats at hand.
Orion/SA is extremely successful in narrowing a search field when the target is stationary. To develop a tool for use when a target is traveling, SPADAC looked to nature.
SPADAC’s AntFarm is a unique methodology modeled after the biological paradigm of a colony of ants. Ants are able to find the optimal route between their colony and a food source, simply by leaving information in their local environment. This prototype system sends out “ants” to explore a model of an environment or network. The network comprises nodes, or destinations like buildings and cities, and edges, or transportation hubs like roads or train routes.
AntFarm provides the analyst with any possible route between two places, with scores for each route denoting the likelihood of a target using that route. The system uses positive and negative factors to predict the route a target might take; for example, a fugitive would be attracted to a route by the presence of natural cover such as a wooded area, but repelled by a nearby police substation. Analysts can load as many factors as they like into the system, and weight them accordingly.
AntFarm is a powerful tool for use in predicting how people move from one place to another. In a disaster planning situation, emergency management authorities could predict the most likely routes people would use to flee a city, and plan their official evacuation routes accordingly. Military agencies and law enforcement can use Ant- Farm to predict how a fugitive might flee. If a person of interest is chased out of one hiding place, where are they most likely to go? AntFarm helps narrow the search, and does so quickly.
Once all factors are loaded, AntFarm delivers intelligence rapidly. In a performance sample, it took 100,000 ants about five minutes to search 10,000 nodes and 15,000 edges. In a situation where the physical factors are known and unchanging, AntFarm can deliver immediate actionable intelligence.
TECHNOLOGY INTEGRATION
The integration of technology and intelligence in SPADAC’s integrated analytical solution offers significant advantages over strictly technology-based solutions. Technology is critical to predicting future movements, since humans cannot recognize many of the mundane patterns of daily life with the naked eye. Conversely, no amount of technology can replace the human analyst. Computers cannot interpret many of the nuances that are immediately clear to a human.
SPADAC’s research teams are integrated into the client’s operations, and are usually composed of both employees of the client and SPADAC staff. These research teams include research specialists and subject matter specialists who work closely together to gather the information needed to create an accurate GeoSignature.
In some cases, SPADAC employees participate in an exchange program, working for weeks or months at the client’s home office while an employee of the client works at SPADAC. These close relationships foster even more powerful research teams—and more effective and efficient intelligence.
Orion/SA is not a standalone answer to intelligence or law enforcement agencies, but rather a powerful solution that can be used in the decision-making process. Recently, SPADAC assisted border control authorities in determining where along the border tunnels were most likely.
Other potential applications of SPADAC’s methodologies include identifying potential trafficking routes for contraband, screening at ports for high risk vessels and cargo, and optimizing resource allocation decisions in counter-contraband operations. The information provided by SPADAC’s researchers and Orion/SA can be critical to making the correct operational decisions to mitigate risks and threats in these areas.
Intelligence technology has grown by leaps and bounds, but it will never eliminate the need for human analysts. Rather, by using sophisticated predictive technology, the human analyst will become more accurate and more efficient. Neither component can stand alone. SPADAC’s method of fusing expert analysts’ input with technology makes geointelligence more valuable, providing more relevant and actionable intelligence to those responsible for the most critical decisions in the world—our military, intelligence and law enforcement leaders. ♦
